Agricultural equipment activity and the business climate rebounded in the third quarter of 2022.
The French agricultural equipment market posted growth close to +14% at the end of the first nine months of the year 2022.
The results after nine months are therefore positive, but we should take into account the optical effect of the figures expressed in value as Turnover, market, exports...
All these indicators show significant changes which are mainly, if not exclusively, explained by the increase in the price of equipment (+12% on average between the first nine months of 2022 and the same period of the previous year).
Deflated, i.e. corrected for the increase in the price of equipment, most of these activity indicators reveal either a decrease, or a stability of activity in volume, or a slight increase, since the beginning of the year.
France remains, in Europe, the country with the best business prospects according to the panel of managers interviewed.
Tractor registrations reached 1,724 units in August 2022, i.e. 15,781 since the start of the year (-6% vs 2021).
This is not the time for euphoria, especially since the agricultural situation is mixed: field crop harvests have been mediocre, even bad as far as corn and potatoes are concerned.
The collection of milk and the slaughtering of cattle and pigs are down compared to last year. Fortunately, the prices of agricultural products compensate (for the moment) the volume effects.
The situation is improving significantly in livestock farming, where prices are still catching up, but it is somewhat darker on the field crop front. In short, the overall picture is nuanced.
The outlook remains uncertain beyond the visibility given by the order book (on average 5 months in agricultural equipment). At the general economic level, forecasting organizations expect 2023 to be a very difficult year, marked by continued high inflation.
The European Commission has thus raised its inflation forecast from 4% to 6.1% for the whole of Europe in 2023, while lowering its growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.3%.
This context could result in a drop in consumption, particularly food, but also in the capital expenditure of local authorities, whose budgets are being undermined by the rise in interest rates and the weight of the energy bill.
